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SubstackJan 2025

Most of your efforts are BS

Original essay

Not all effort is created equal.

The Pareto Principle — 80% of outcomes come from 20% of inputs — is a constant in life.

But there's a catch I found: you don't always know which 20% will matter until you've gone through the other 80%.

In Atomic Habits, James Clear describes how ice doesn't melt at 35 degrees. It just sits there, cold and stubborn. But at 36 degrees, it melts. The shift feels sudden, but it's not. Every degree before 36 mattered — it just didn't show.

The same is true for your work.

You might feel like nothing is moving. You're putting in hours, making decisions, trying different approaches. Then one day, a breakthrough happens. Suddenly, you find the 20% of effort that drives 80% of your results.

Think about a manager climbing the corporate ladder. Early in their career, they work hard on everything, not knowing what will pay off. But as they move up, they're paid for their decisions, not their effort.

The leverage wasn't obvious at first — it revealed itself over time.

Sometimes, to reach the 20% that matters, you have to push through the 80% that feels like it doesn't.

— Moghal Saif

Moghal Saif